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Key takeaways
• Section 301 tariffs of 10% to 12.5% currently apply to jewelry imports from 60 countries, with an additional 50% tariff on selected Canadian goods.
• U.S. Customs and Border Protection is processing IEEPA tariff refunds for eligible importers of record, though July Section 301 tariffs remain non-refundable.
• Election results will not immediately change trade rules or tariffs, as the newly elected Congress will not take office until January 2027.
Americans vote today, Tuesday, Nov. 3, in midterm elections that will decide control of Congress and a long list of state ballot measures. As of this morning, no results are in, and Southern Jewelry News makes no predictions about them. What we can do is lay out where the rules that hit a jeweler’s bottom line stand right now, so you know what to watch in the weeks ahead.
Tariffs in effect today
The tariff picture has changed more than once this year. On Feb. 20, the U.S. The Supreme Court struck down the IEEPA tariffs in a 6-3 decision. A temporary 10% global tariff took their place and expired July 23. Since July 24, a Section 301 “forced labor” tariff of 10% or 12.5% has applied to 60 countries, with no end date.
According to the American Gem Trade Association, the rates for key gem and jewelry sources are:
India: 10%
Thailand, Hong Kong, Vietnam, Colombia and Australia: 12.5%
China: 12.5%, on top of older tariffs
Sri Lanka: 10%
Kenya, Tanzania, Madagascar and Zambia: not covered
Natural diamonds, gemstones and pearls from the European Union (including Antwerp), Switzerland and several other origins pay no extra tariff. India does not get that break. Lab-grown diamonds and finished jewelry get no break from any country (GJEPC; AWDC).
For finished jewelry, the base duty is 5% for silver and 5.5% for gold. A private duty calculator puts total duty on gold jewelry at about 15.5% from India, about 18% from Thailand and 25.5% from China. Swiss watches and jewelry carry a 12.5% total. Those totals come from private sources, not the government. Before you price an order or sign a purchase agreement, confirm the exact duty rate for your product and origin with a licensed customs broker.
Canada is a separate case. Since Aug. 22, an additional 50% tariff has applied to Canadian polished diamonds, silver and gold jewelry, costume jewelry and some coins, even when the goods qualify under USMCA. Rough diamonds are not covered (National Jeweler; U.S. Customs and Border Protection).
Gold, silver and platinum bullion are exempt from the 2025-26 tariffs.
India and Russia: two open questions
A February U.S.-India framework would remove tariffs on Indian gems and diamonds once a final deal is signed. As of October, those talks were stalled.
A Russia sanctions law passed in September allows tariffs of up to 100% on major buyers of Russian oil, including India and China. That tariff has been waived for now.
Refunds and court cases
If your business paid IEEPA tariffs as the importer of record, you may be owed money. U.S. Customs and Border Protection has been processing IEEPA refunds since April 20, usually 60 to 90 days after a claim is accepted. Only the importer of the record can file. A third round of refunds started Oct. 6 for companies that sued and won. There is a separate fight over finalized entries for importers that did not sue. The tariffs imposed in July are not refundable. If you bought through a supplier who imported the goods, the refund claim belongs to that importer, not to you.
The Section 301 forced-labor tariff is being challenged at the Court of International Trade (case 26-03555). The case was argued Sept. 30, the panel has asked for more briefs, and there is no ruling yet. According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a lower court invalidated the temporary 10% tariff, and a challenge to the Canada tariff is “looming.”
For anyone shipping small parcels: the $800 de minimis exemption is suspended indefinitely. The Jan. 20, 2027 date in the rule only delays some postal paperwork requirements. It does not bring the exemption back.
What a new Congress could change: what analysts say
The following are analysts’ views, not facts or forecasts from this publication. The new Congress starts in January 2027 (ORF).
Reuters (via Investing.com), CSIS and the Chicago Council on Global Affairs say that if Democrats win the House or Senate, the result would likely be hearings, investigations and symbolic repeal votes. They say actual tariff rollbacks are unlikely without veto-proof majorities.
CSIS lists likely targets: the Canada tariffs and Section 338; narrowing the laws behind the July tariffs; requiring Congress to approve new tariffs and trade deals; passing refunds through to consumers; and probing tariff exemptions.
Bills have already been filed, including Sen. Chuck Schumer’s “End Trump’s Tariff Tax Act” and a bill from Sen. Ron Wyden. The Hudson Institute says some Republicans could help limit presidential tariff powers.
Holiday sales and prices
The National Retail Federation forecasts holiday sales of $1.013 trillion, up 4.2%. NRF says about half of that growth comes from higher prices, and 84% of shoppers expect prices to rise. For jewelers, that points to customers who expect higher price tags and will compare carefully.
Gold prices
Gold hit a record of about $5,500 in January. On Oct. 30 it was near $3,910, a one-year low, and silver was below $50 (CNBC). The drivers cited are oil-driven inflation and the Federal Reserve, under Chair Kevin Warsh, holding rates high, with a possible rate hike in December. Lower metal costs may help on replenishment and custom work, but they also change what customers get when they sell scrap gold over the counter.
State ballot measures
We found no statewide sales-tax measure aimed at jewelry on today’s ballots. Several tax measures could still matter to store owners, according to the Tax Foundation:
California Proposition 40: a one-time 5% tax on billionaires
Florida Amendment 3: caps yearly increases in business property assessments at 5%, down from 10%
Colorado: competing measures, one for a graduated income tax with a top rate of 8.4% and one for a 4.4% cap
Washington I-645: repeal of the tax on income over $1 million
North Carolina: lowers the income tax cap to 3.5%
A note on Nevada: some precious-metals dealer websites have described a Nevada ballot question that would exempt gold, silver, coins and bullion from sales tax starting Jan. 1, 2027. That question is not on today’s ballot. The bill that would have placed it there, Assembly Bill 359, failed in the 2025 Legislature (LegiScan). The Nevada Secretary of State’s 2026 ballot question guide lists only two statewide questions, Questions 6 and 7, and neither deals with taxes.
In Texas, a law making gold and silver legal tender took effect Sept. 1. It is already law and not on today’s ballot.
Other federal rules to keep on your radar
Russian diamonds: still banned. An OFAC license lets grandfathered stones in through Sept. 1, 2027. The G7 digital traceability system has not been launched (National Jeweler; AWDC).
Anti-money laundering: FinCEN proposed an overhaul of AML/CFT program rules on April 10. Comments closed June 9, and the rule is not final. The current rule covers dealers with more than $50,000 in purchases and sales of covered goods.
FTC Jewelry Guides: unchanged. “Laboratory-grown” and “laboratory-created” are allowed. “Cultured” may be used only with clear disclosure. A review is due in 2028 (16 CFR 23.12).
We found no new federal tax changes aimed at small retailers and no state minimum wage measures on today’s ballots.
Where the trade groups stand
Jewelers of America is pushing for a tariff exemption for diamonds, gemstones and pearls regardless of origin. CEO David Bonaparte met with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer in July. JA also backs CORCA, the organized retail crime bill, which passed the House 348-60 and is awaiting a Senate vote.
AGTA wants colored gemstones tariff-free from all countries. The Jewelers Vigilance Committee keeps a tariff tracker and is guiding members on refunds.
What to do this week
If you import, check whether you have IEEPA refund claims to file as importer of record.
Confirm current duty rates for your products and origins with a licensed customs broker before placing holiday reorders.
Watch the Court of International Trade case on the Section 301 tariff. A ruling could change costs on goods from 60 countries.
Remember that a new Congress does not take office until January 2027. Nothing changes on tariffs from today’s votes alone.
Southern Jewelry News will report the results and what they mean for the trade once they are known. Follow updates at SouthernJewelryNews.com.
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